Setting description

Equal randomization: several treatments more effective in distinctive signatures (cfr scen 7)

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.023, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.025, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 43.8, median = 35.8 mean = 39.3, median = 32.1 mean = 37.4, median = 30.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.12, hr = 0.86 af = 1.01, hr = 0.99 af = 0.96, hr = 1.06
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.025, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 37.8, median = 30.9 mean = 37.7, median = 30.8
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.97, hr = 1.04 af = 0.96, hr = 1.05
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.025, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 41.3, median = 33.8 mean = 37.1, median = 30.3
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.06, hr = 0.93 af = 0.95, hr = 1.07
HRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 44.5, median = 36.4 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.14, hr = 0.84 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.023, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 41.2, median = 33.7 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39.9, median = 32.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.06, hr = 0.93 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.02, hr = 0.97



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 4 3 0
TP53- 163 0 0
TP53+ 0 32 5
HRD+ 3 3 240
TEfus+ 1 199 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.008 0.006 0.00
TP53- 0.326 0.000 0.00
TP53+ 0.000 0.064 0.01
HRD+ 0.006 0.006 0.48
TEfus+ 0.002 0.398 0.00
futility (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 5 13 11
TP53- 3 182 137
TP53+ 383 26 34
HRD+ 90 86 4
TEfus+ 184 8 130
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.010 0.026 0.022
TP53- 0.006 0.364 0.274
TP53+ 0.766 0.052 0.068
HRD+ 0.180 0.172 0.008
TEfus+ 0.368 0.016 0.260
max sample size (counts and proportions):
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0 0 0
TP53- 75 65 73
TP53+ 0 16 15
HRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all 0.00 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.15 0.130 0.146
TP53+ 0.00 0.032 0.030
HRD+ 0.00 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.00 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.04.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.004     0.034     0.002

The overall power was 0.8.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

     ARSi Taxane_CT     PARPi 
    0.326     0.398     0.480

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all graduation 0 4 3 0
futility 0 5 13 11
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 532 (480, 591) 344 (252, 464) 434 (273, 539) 447 (266, 537)
n_unique 532 (480, 591) 344 (252, 464) 434 (273, 539) 447 (266, 537)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 16 (9, 29) 15 (10, 24) 12 (6, 26)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.96 (0.69, 1) 0.42 (0.06, 0.84) 0.14 (0.01, 0.59)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.021) 0.016 (0.014, 0.018) 0.02 (0.018, 0.022) 0.021 (0.019, 0.023)
TP53- graduation 0 163 0 0
futility 0 3 182 137
max_n 0 75 65 73
n 286 (249, 328) 236 (160, 302) 236 (66, 301) 242 (68, 302)
n_unique 286 (249, 328) 236 (160, 302) 236 (66, 301) 242 (68, 302)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (38, 60) 60 (16, 60) 60 (18, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 43 (31, 56) 21 (13, 40) 20 (13, 32)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.96, 1) 0.08 (0, 0.39) 0.05 (0, 0.37)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.011 (0.009, 0.013) 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.025)
TP53+ graduation 0 0 32 5
futility 0 383 26 34
max_n 0 0 16 15
n 246 (208, 286) 100 (53, 206) 221 (143, 272) 215 (134, 267)
n_unique 246 (208, 286) 100 (53, 206) 221 (143, 272) 215 (134, 267)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 30 (16, 60) 60 (50, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 24 (15, 47) 32 (15, 50) 21 (17, 31)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.05 (0, 0.34) 0.89 (0.47, 0.99) 0.58 (0.13, 0.93)
rate 0.022 (0.019, 0.024) 0.029 (0.024, 0.034) 0.019 (0.016, 0.022) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024)
HRD+ graduation 0 3 3 240
futility 0 90 86 4
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 148 (124, 175) 92 (54, 138) 117 (53, 159) 100 (62, 152)
n_unique 148 (124, 175) 92 (54, 138) 117 (53, 159) 100 (62, 152)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (30, 60) 60 (34, 60) 60 (37, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (23, 48) 30 (23, 48) 45 (33, 57)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.71 (0.26, 0.96) 0.51 (0.12, 0.89) 1 (0.92, 1)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.021) 0.016 (0.013, 0.02) 0.018 (0.014, 0.021) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
TEfus+ graduation 0 1 199 0
futility 0 184 8 130
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 200 (166, 236) 110 (59, 176) 147 (94, 209) 164 (55, 213)
n_unique 200 (166, 236) 110 (59, 176) 147 (94, 209) 164 (55, 213)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (38, 60) 60 (22, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 29 (19, 48) 46 (33, 57) 24 (18, 44)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.31 (0.03, 0.79) 0.99 (0.88, 1) 0.11 (0.01, 0.49)
rate 0.016 (0.014, 0.018) 0.018 (0.014, 0.022) 0.01 (0.008, 0.013) 0.02 (0.017, 0.023)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
— graduation 0 172 188 143
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 75 65 73
n 155 (126, 186) 140 (84, 173) 131 (36, 168) 138 (38, 173)
n_unique 155 (126, 186) 140 (84, 173) 131 (36, 168) 138 (38, 173)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.96, 1) 0.03 (0, 0.25) 0.02 (0, 0.2)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.022) 0.011 (0.009, 0.013) 0.027 (0.023, 0.032) 0.027 (0.023, 0.032)
–+ graduation 0 326 342 219
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 73 59 73
n 48 (35, 63) 34 (15, 52) 33 (10, 53) 39 (11, 58)
n_unique 48 (35, 63) 34 (15, 52) 33 (10, 53) 39 (11, 58)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.7 (0.32, 0.95) 0.77 (0.37, 0.96) 0.02 (0, 0.17)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.019) 0.011 (0.007, 0.017) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015) 0.028 (0.02, 0.039)
-+- graduation 0 390 69 48
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 16 15
n 101 (82, 124) 44 (22, 91) 96 (62, 118) 97 (69, 117)
n_unique 101 (82, 124) 44 (22, 91) 96 (62, 118) 97 (69, 117)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.36 (0.06, 0.79) 0.34 (0.06, 0.8) 0.38 (0.06, 0.83)
rate 0.025 (0.021, 0.029) 0.029 (0.023, 0.036) 0.027 (0.023, 0.033) 0.027 (0.022, 0.031)
-++ graduation 0 429 247 154
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 15 15
n 78 (59, 100) 28 (16, 65) 67 (30, 91) 70 (22, 92)
n_unique 78 (59, 100) 28 (16, 65) 67 (30, 91) 70 (22, 92)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.08 (0.01, 0.38) 0.98 (0.81, 1) 0.07 (0, 0.37)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.023) 0.029 (0.023, 0.037) 0.01 (0.007, 0.014) 0.027 (0.021, 0.034)
+– graduation 0 246 232 324
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 73 65 62
n 42 (31, 54) 35 (17, 52) 33 (9, 49) 30 (10, 47)
n_unique 42 (31, 54) 35 (17, 52) 33 (9, 49) 30 (10, 47)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.87 (0.51, 0.99) 0.1 (0.01, 0.38) 0.9 (0.57, 0.99)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.024) 0.011 (0.007, 0.017) 0.027 (0.02, 0.038) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)
+-+ graduation 0 370 375 383
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 71 59 62
n 40 (27, 54) 27 (12, 49) 26 (8, 47) 25 (9, 46)
n_unique 40 (27, 54) 27 (12, 49) 26 (8, 47) 25 (9, 46)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.59 (0.23, 0.88) 0.63 (0.28, 0.92) 0.66 (0.29, 0.92)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.018) 0.011 (0.007, 0.016) 0.01 (0.006, 0.017) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)
++- graduation 0 403 146 274
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 16 13
n 32 (23, 44) 12 (6, 32) 29 (12, 41) 27 (12, 38)
n_unique 32 (23, 44) 12 (6, 32) 29 (12, 41) 27 (12, 38)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.33 (0.08, 0.7) 0.35 (0.07, 0.71) 0.98 (0.84, 1)
rate 0.025 (0.018, 0.033) 0.029 (0.02, 0.045) 0.027 (0.019, 0.038) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)
+++ graduation 0 439 305 355
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 15 13
n 32 (21, 43) 12 (6, 29) 27 (10, 43) 22 (9, 40)
n_unique 32 (21, 43) 12 (6, 29) 27 (10, 43) 22 (9, 40)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.15 (0.02, 0.44) 0.86 (0.53, 0.98) 0.86 (0.54, 0.98)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.025) 0.028 (0.019, 0.045) 0.01 (0.006, 0.017) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 4 3
time_stop 24 (18, 35) 24 (20, 25)
n_trt 170 (132, 235) 189 (145, 196)
n_control 180 (145, 306) 164 (155, 192)
post_p 1 (0.96, 1) 0.98 (0.9, 1)
order 1 (1, 1.7) 1 (1, 1.8)
TP53- count 163
time_stop 43 (31, 56)
n_trt 197 (137, 266)
n_control 202 (141, 280)
post_p 1 (0.98, 1)
order 1 (1, 2)
TP53+ count 32 5
time_stop 42 (28, 58) 34 (21, 41)
n_trt 164 (96, 225) 134 (71, 156)
n_control 160 (98, 222) 151 (68, 173)
post_p 0.99 (0.93, 1) 0.98 (0.97, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 2.2)
HRD+ count 3 3 240
time_stop 52 (37, 58) 50 (48, 56) 45 (34, 57)
n_trt 57 (57, 111) 123 (122, 140) 98 (64, 141)
n_control 131 (90, 144) 110 (107, 138) 111 (79, 149)
post_p 0.99 (0.96, 1) 0.98 (0.96, 0.99) 1 (0.98, 1)
order 2 (1.2, 4.4) 3 (1.4, 3.8) 1 (1, 2)
TEfus+ count 1 199
time_stop 22 (22, 22) 46 (34, 57)
n_trt 53 (53, 53) 137 (92, 187)
n_control 73 (73, 73) 154 (107, 198)
post_p 1 (1, 1) 1 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (2, 2) 1 (1, 2)
Futility:
signature var ARSi Taxane_CT PARPi
all count 5 13 11
time_stop 10 (8, 18) 14 (10, 21) 12 (6, 26)
n_trt 77 (61, 117) 95 (76, 136) 85 (53, 156)
n_control 85 (61, 151) 106 (69, 165) 76 (48, 245)
post_p 0.07 (0.05, 0.15) 0.08 (0.03, 0.21) 0.19 (0.03, 0.26)
order 1 (1, 1.6) 1 (1, 2.8) 1 (1, 4)
TP53- count 3 182 137
time_stop 17 (14, 20) 21 (13, 40) 20 (13, 32)
n_trt 82 (68, 84) 83 (54, 183) 78 (56, 141)
n_control 72 (58, 97) 88 (51, 188) 84 (50, 145)
post_p 0.23 (0.15, 0.24) 0.12 (0.01, 0.26) 0.13 (0.02, 0.24)
order 1 (1, 2.6) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 383 26 34
time_stop 24 (15, 47) 18 (14, 38) 21 (16, 27)
n_trt 82 (52, 161) 56 (50, 108) 69 (50, 92)
n_control 82 (48, 173) 63 (40, 124) 76 (54, 104)
post_p 0.12 (0.03, 0.26) 0.18 (0.1, 0.26) 0.17 (0.04, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 4) 1 (1, 3)
HRD+ count 90 86 4
time_stop 29 (23, 47) 30 (23, 48) 25 (23, 27)
n_trt 56 (50, 95) 62 (51, 92) 54 (51, 57)
n_control 69 (48, 119) 73 (50, 122) 48 (44, 54)
post_p 0.17 (0.06, 0.28) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27) 0.24 (0.12, 0.29)
order 3 (1, 4.1) 3 (1, 4) 2 (1.3, 4.1)
TEfus+ count 184 8 130
time_stop 29 (19, 48) 23 (16, 33) 24 (18, 44)
n_trt 78 (52, 126) 60 (51, 84) 66 (51, 125)
n_control 82 (53, 163) 68 (42, 96) 74 (50, 137)
post_p 0.14 (0.03, 0.26) 0.16 (0.1, 0.25) 0.11 (0.01, 0.25)
order 2 (1, 4) 2.5 (1, 4.9) 2 (1, 4)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
time 24 (18, 35) 24 (18, 35) 24 (18, 35) 24 (18, 35) 24 (18, 35) 24 (18, 35) 24 (18, 35) 24 (18, 35)
n 50 (32, 89) 12 (11, 13) 36 (29, 55) 20 (20, 23) 18 (9, 23) 11 (11, 12) 12 (9, 15) 9 (8, 10)
post_p 0.91 (0.69, 1) 0.67 (0.65, 0.73) 0.72 (0.66, 0.82) 0.63 (0.58, 0.77) 0.56 (0.56, 0.61) 0.58 (0.56, 0.67) 0.6 (0.58, 0.61) 0.59 (0.55, 0.75)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.006, 0.01) 0.004 (0, 0.01) 0.015 (0.009, 0.026) 0.012 (0.005, 0.016) 0.007 (0.002, 0.01) 0 (0, 0.005) 0.016 (0.004, 0.025) 0.004 (0, 0.009)
Taxane_CT count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 24 (20, 25) 24 (20, 25) 24 (20, 25) 24 (20, 25) 24 (20, 25) 24 (20, 25) 24 (20, 25) 24 (20, 25)
n 55 (41, 66) 17 (11, 18) 33 (31, 45) 22 (19, 26) 15 (8, 15) 13 (10, 18) 8 (8, 12) 10 (9, 11)
post_p 0.6 (0.59, 0.63) 0.59 (0.57, 0.69) 0.79 (0.62, 0.9) 0.76 (0.65, 0.9) 0.56 (0.56, 0.57) 0.6 (0.6, 0.63) 0.6 (0.57, 0.64) 0.63 (0.59, 0.67)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.009, 0.016) 0.008 (0.002, 0.011) 0.017 (0.011, 0.028) 0.005 (0.001, 0.007) 0.005 (0.001, 0.005) 0.004 (0.001, 0.01) 0.012 (0.01, 0.013) 0 (0, 0.01)
TP53- ARSi count 163 163 163 163
time 43 (31, 56) 43 (31, 56) 43 (31, 56) 43 (31, 56)
n 109 (71, 146) 31 (19, 47) 27 (18, 42) 28 (16, 44)
post_p 0.99 (0.87, 1) 0.8 (0.71, 0.93) 0.8 (0.71, 0.95) 0.74 (0.7, 0.85)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.007, 0.013) 0.008 (0.004, 0.011) 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) 0.007 (0.002, 0.011)
TP53+ Taxane_CT count 32 32 32 32
time 42 (28, 58) 42 (28, 58) 42 (28, 58) 42 (28, 58)
n 67 (40, 91) 50 (26, 71) 20 (11, 29) 20 (13, 28)
post_p 0.79 (0.72, 0.9) 0.91 (0.74, 0.99) 0.73 (0.7, 0.8) 0.77 (0.7, 0.94)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.024) 0.01 (0.003, 0.013) 0.017 (0.007, 0.026) 0.007 (0, 0.011)
PARPi count 5 5 5 5
time 34 (21, 41) 34 (21, 41) 34 (21, 41) 34 (21, 41)
n 53 (27, 75) 27 (24, 52) 15 (9, 25) 11 (7, 25)
post_p 0.74 (0.71, 0.88) 0.82 (0.77, 0.88) 0.74 (0.64, 0.92) 0.78 (0.62, 0.83)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.019 (0.009, 0.023) 0.011 (0.003, 0.019) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0 (0, 0.005)
HRD+ ARSi count 3 3 3 3
time 52 (37, 58) 52 (37, 58) 52 (37, 58) 52 (37, 58)
n 22 (19, 48) 19 (13, 19) 15 (8, 34) 13 (10, 14)
post_p 0.72 (0.72, 0.93) 0.75 (0.73, 0.81) 0.77 (0.66, 0.83) 0.74 (0.71, 0.81)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0.005, 0.013) 0.01 (0.002, 0.01) 0.023 (0.005, 0.024) 0.01 (0.007, 0.014)
Taxane_CT count 3 3 3 3
time 50 (48, 56) 50 (48, 56) 50 (48, 56) 50 (48, 56)
n 36 (22, 47) 40 (28, 46) 29 (25, 33) 26 (24, 33)
post_p 0.79 (0.72, 0.87) 0.81 (0.77, 0.82) 0.72 (0.71, 0.81) 0.89 (0.83, 0.94)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.013, 0.017) 0.008 (0.008, 0.009) 0.018 (0.017, 0.02) 0.01 (0.006, 0.012)
PARPi count 240 240 240 240
time 45 (34, 57) 45 (34, 57) 45 (34, 57) 45 (34, 57)
n 28 (12, 42) 28 (10, 45) 22 (12, 34) 22 (11, 34)
post_p 0.83 (0.72, 0.98) 0.74 (0.7, 0.87) 0.93 (0.75, 1) 0.8 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.007 (0.003, 0.01) 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) 0.007 (0.002, 0.012)
TEfus+ ARSi count 1 1 1 1
time 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22)
n 13 (13, 13) 20 (20, 20) 11 (11, 11) 9 (9, 9)
post_p 0.76 (0.76, 0.76) 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.63 (0.63, 0.63)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0 (0, 0) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Taxane_CT count 199 199 199 199
time 46 (34, 57) 46 (34, 57) 46 (34, 57) 46 (34, 57)
n 34 (15, 47) 55 (32, 79) 29 (12, 45) 22 (12, 35)
post_p 0.81 (0.71, 0.96) 0.96 (0.76, 1) 0.74 (0.7, 0.91) 0.8 (0.71, 0.95)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.004, 0.012) 0.009 (0.005, 0.013) 0.007 (0.003, 0.01) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all ARSi count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
time 10 (8, 18) 10 (8, 18) 10 (8, 18) 10 (8, 18) 10 (8, 18) 10 (8, 18) 10 (8, 18) 10 (8, 18)
n 24 (16, 39) 8 (6, 11) 16 (14, 23) 12 (10, 16) 4 (2, 10) 5 (2, 10) 4 (1, 7) 4 (2, 6)
post_p 0.45 (0.39, 0.5) 0.41 (0.36, 0.44) 0.42 (0.29, 0.46) 0.43 (0.33, 0.45) 0.49 (0.34, 0.5) 0.48 (0.39, 0.49) 0.45 (0.44, 0.47) 0.44 (0.39, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.016, 0.018) 0.022 (0.015, 0.037) 0.025 (0.022, 0.035) 0.028 (0.016, 0.057) 0 (0, 0.04) 0.02 (0.004, 0.029) 0.027 (0.01, 0.084) 0.025 (0, 0.07)
Taxane_CT count 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
time 14 (10, 21) 14 (10, 21) 14 (10, 21) 14 (10, 21) 14 (10, 21) 14 (10, 21) 14 (10, 21) 14 (10, 21)
n 29 (24, 34) 10 (5, 16) 15 (12, 34) 13 (9, 28) 8 (5, 11) 10 (5, 18) 6 (2, 8) 5 (1, 12)
post_p 0.35 (0.19, 0.42) 0.45 (0.42, 0.49) 0.44 (0.27, 0.48) 0.45 (0.36, 0.47) 0.45 (0.31, 0.5) 0.48 (0.41, 0.49) 0.44 (0.28, 0.49) 0.46 (0.37, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.014, 0.028) 0.013 (0, 0.029) 0.026 (0.013, 0.035) 0.016 (0.009, 0.039) 0.015 (0, 0.043) 0 (0, 0.024) 0.049 (0.006, 0.139) 0.01 (0, 0.046)
PARPi count 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
time 12 (6, 26) 12 (6, 26) 12 (6, 26) 12 (6, 26) 12 (6, 26) 12 (6, 26) 12 (6, 26) 12 (6, 26)
n 24 (18, 37) 6 (4, 12) 16 (12, 45) 12 (6, 25) 6 (1, 9) 7 (2, 10) 4 (2, 14) 5 (1, 10)
post_p 0.34 (0.25, 0.43) 0.43 (0.28, 0.48) 0.37 (0.14, 0.46) 0.46 (0.32, 0.49) 0.48 (0.34, 0.5) 0.48 (0.4, 0.49) 0.48 (0.42, 0.5) 0.49 (0.47, 0.5)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.014, 0.05) 0.024 (0, 0.052) 0.031 (0.021, 0.061) 0.02 (0, 0.032) 0 (0, 0.028) 0.006 (0, 0.017) 0.017 (0, 0.027) 0.006 (0, 0.02)
TP53- ARSi count 3 3 3 3
time 17 (14, 20) 17 (14, 20) 17 (14, 20) 17 (14, 20)
n 36 (34, 46) 11 (11, 16) 11 (9, 13) 14 (12, 15)
post_p 0.42 (0.36, 0.44) 0.48 (0.35, 0.48) 0.43 (0.41, 0.46) 0.4 (0.36, 0.46)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.013, 0.021) 0.019 (0.009, 0.021) 0.015 (0.011, 0.026) 0.012 (0.002, 0.013)
Taxane_CT count 182 182 182 182
time 21 (13, 40) 21 (13, 40) 21 (13, 40) 21 (13, 40)
n 46 (28, 100) 14 (7, 31) 13 (7, 24) 12 (7, 26)
post_p 0.26 (0.04, 0.45) 0.46 (0.37, 0.5) 0.38 (0.18, 0.47) 0.45 (0.31, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.03) 0.014 (0.008, 0.028) 0.024 (0.014, 0.047) 0.013 (0, 0.025)
PARPi count 137 137 137 137
time 20 (13, 32) 20 (13, 32) 20 (13, 32) 20 (13, 32)
n 44 (30, 79) 14 (8, 25) 12 (7, 22) 11 (6, 22)
post_p 0.27 (0.07, 0.43) 0.37 (0.11, 0.48) 0.46 (0.38, 0.5) 0.46 (0.37, 0.5)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.029) 0.026 (0.012, 0.042) 0.014 (0.006, 0.027) 0.013 (0, 0.025)
TP53+ ARSi count 383 383 383 383
time 24 (15, 47) 24 (15, 47) 24 (15, 47) 24 (15, 47)
n 35 (21, 70) 25 (15, 50) 11 (5, 23) 11 (6, 22)
post_p 0.37 (0.15, 0.48) 0.34 (0.05, 0.47) 0.43 (0.24, 0.49) 0.39 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.026 (0.019, 0.034) 0.024 (0.016, 0.035) 0.025 (0.014, 0.047) 0.024 (0.013, 0.041)
Taxane_CT count 26 26 26 26
time 18 (14, 38) 18 (14, 38) 18 (14, 38) 18 (14, 38)
n 24 (20, 48) 18 (12, 34) 9 (6, 15) 9 (4, 18)
post_p 0.36 (0.19, 0.47) 0.46 (0.37, 0.49) 0.41 (0.3, 0.47) 0.45 (0.36, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.028 (0.021, 0.04) 0.016 (0.007, 0.02) 0.03 (0.014, 0.052) 0.02 (0.004, 0.038)
PARPi count 34 34 34 34
time 21 (16, 27) 21 (16, 27) 21 (16, 27) 21 (16, 27)
n 30 (21, 40) 22 (17, 28) 9 (5, 14) 9 (4, 12)
post_p 0.31 (0.16, 0.48) 0.35 (0.1, 0.48) 0.46 (0.38, 0.49) 0.47 (0.4, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.028 (0.02, 0.037) 0.026 (0.017, 0.038) 0.02 (0.009, 0.035) 0.014 (0.003, 0.028)
HRD+ ARSi count 90 90 90 90
time 29 (23, 47) 29 (23, 47) 29 (23, 47) 29 (23, 47)
n 20 (12, 35) 19 (12, 32) 11 (6, 17) 11 (6, 17)
post_p 0.44 (0.29, 0.49) 0.45 (0.3, 0.49) 0.36 (0.17, 0.49) 0.26 (0.06, 0.46)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.01, 0.024) 0.012 (0.006, 0.02) 0.029 (0.013, 0.048) 0.027 (0.014, 0.048)
Taxane_CT count 86 86 86 86
time 30 (23, 48) 30 (23, 48) 30 (23, 48) 30 (23, 48)
n 19 (10, 28) 16 (8, 27) 15 (8, 24) 14 (8, 28)
post_p 0.24 (0.05, 0.44) 0.44 (0.3, 0.5) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48) 0.45 (0.34, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.014, 0.037) 0.011 (0.006, 0.02) 0.028 (0.017, 0.044) 0.016 (0.008, 0.023)
PARPi count 4 4 4 4
time 25 (23, 27) 25 (23, 27) 25 (23, 27) 25 (23, 27)
n 14 (10, 18) 14 (9, 17) 14 (8, 19) 13 (12, 14)
post_p 0.44 (0.29, 0.48) 0.48 (0.44, 0.49) 0.44 (0.42, 0.49) 0.41 (0.29, 0.46)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.011, 0.025) 0.011 (0.009, 0.018) 0.014 (0.006, 0.02) 0.021 (0.017, 0.025)
TEfus+ ARSi count 184 184 184 184
time 29 (19, 48) 29 (19, 48) 29 (19, 48) 29 (19, 48)
n 20 (12, 38) 26 (17, 41) 17 (10, 34) 11 (6, 21)
post_p 0.44 (0.29, 0.49) 0.26 (0.04, 0.44) 0.45 (0.32, 0.49) 0.36 (0.09, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.022) 0.025 (0.017, 0.034) 0.012 (0.007, 0.021) 0.024 (0.013, 0.04)
Taxane_CT count 8 8 8 8
time 23 (16, 33) 23 (16, 33) 23 (16, 33) 23 (16, 33)
n 15 (9, 17) 24 (17, 33) 14 (8, 19) 10 (6, 21)
post_p 0.48 (0.39, 0.49) 0.38 (0.23, 0.43) 0.43 (0.27, 0.48) 0.45 (0.4, 0.47)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.007, 0.02) 0.017 (0.015, 0.04) 0.015 (0.008, 0.022) 0.018 (0.009, 0.034)
PARPi count 130 130 130 130
time 24 (18, 44) 24 (18, 44) 24 (18, 44) 24 (18, 44)
n 16 (11, 32) 28 (18, 52) 14 (7, 28) 11 (6, 21)
post_p 0.3 (0.04, 0.45) 0.29 (0.07, 0.46) 0.43 (0.32, 0.49) 0.46 (0.38, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.013, 0.041) 0.025 (0.017, 0.036) 0.013 (0.007, 0.023) 0.015 (0.008, 0.024)